Dan’s Wild Wild Weather Journal

If you ask any Synoptic forecaster like myself, what the number one weather killer is, you will likely get the same answer.

It doesn’t matter if it’s a private TV Meteorologist like me, or a NOAA forecaster, or one from Environment Canada, the BBC, or the UK Met. Office.

It’s not tornadoes or hurricanes. It’s heat. (You thought I was going to say flash flooding didn’t you!)
At least in America it’s heat! We are too used to Air Conditioning here.

My grandmother lived through the Dust Bowl in Oklahoma. She would sit outside in 110 degree heat and drink ice tea and feel just fine! I’m a wimp. I hate the heat. (Cold I like!)

Flash flooding is the second most frequent weather killer. It may be number one in many countries. Bangladesh and India come to mind. (Every person i know from India is smart and friendly…I want to go there!)

The “Get there itis” that people have when driving, causes them to drive into a flooded intersection more often than not. If you do the math, (I can send it to you if you want) you will find that water moving at 10 mph only has to be about 8-12 inches deep to force your car off the road. If the water is moving faster, even less.

People email me all the time who have a real phobia of tornadoes, and hurricanes. Yet they will drive through flooded intersections, and play on a ball field when a thunderstorm is coming. Lightning is almost as deadly as flash flooding.

No we do not issue lightning warnings. (The PGA does!). Perhaps we should. The Psychology of how people react to threats has always fascinated me.  Thousands die each year in road accidents, but a plane crash with 5 fatalities makes front page news.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration spent millions on a campaign to get people to recognize the dangers of flash floods. The slogan, “Turn Around, Don’t Drown” was developed. At a recent American Meteorological Society weather conference, a survey of forecasters found that less than half knew it!!

Now at least, YOU DO!

TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!

later,

Dan

The folks at Nature (One of the top science journals on the planet), have written an excellent summary of the year’s new knowledge in Climate. It’s another of my must reads. (I admit there have been a few of these lately..sorry I can’t help it).

You can see it HERE

The other news of the day comes from the White City tube stop in London. The BBC has announced Matt Smith is the 11th time lord. David Tennant, you will always be in my heart as the true Doctor, but I wish Matt Smith a huge congratulations…you have have HUGE shoes to fill.

I really must write a post on Doctor Who. It’s the only TV program I watch, but really, isn’t that enough!

Happy New Year to all (except Cybermen and Daleks of course)

Dan

It has been awhile since I recommended some books to you faithful readers. (Readers from 71 countries have now visited my journal! Thank You!)

The fisrt book is related to a post about Dr. Richard Muller’s course at U. C.  Berkeley. “Physics For Future Presidents”. He has written a book that includes even more material than is available in the online lectures! (I have the link to his course in my previous post.)
Think Plutonium is the most toxic substance known, worried about a dirty bomb? Then your Physics needs updating. This is a complete course in modern Physics, with almost no math. (The Math is beautiful though, as Dr. Muller points out, in his online lectures).

Muller’s online course has been voted the most popular at Berkeley. This, by Non Science majors!

It would be great to meet Muller someday. He is a renowned Physicist. He knew Feynman too! 

You can get it from Amazon here:
PHYSICS FOR FUTURE PRESIDENTS 

The other book is a new one on climate that is really fascinating. It is also recommended by the Climate Scientists who write the Real Climate blog. That is high praise indeed.

Ice, Mud and Blood, by Chris Turney, is also available from Amazon HERE.

Have you wondered just how we know what the climate was like millions of years ago? This book explains it. I am rather familiar with the basic climate proxies, but I have learned a lot of new things from this book! Very readable and interesting.

I’m now on page 87, and my opinion of this book keeps climbing rapidly. If your tired of the junk online about climate change being a hoax or a liberal plot (please!, read a book folks!) This book is a real world look at Climate Science. 

Chris Turney, is a climate professor in the Uk, and a graduate of Royal Holloway, a very prestigious school. 

If you know a young person interested in Science, these books would make a great gift. If you like learning things the rest of the world doesn’t know, buy them for yourself!

Later,
Dan

I have asked this question to myself many times.

Any Meteorologist, who works as a forecaster, will tell you that people get very upset if you tell them that the damage to their home was not caused by a tornado.  I am not sure why this is the case, it would probably make a good PhD thesis for some Psychology student!

Straight line winds can, and most of the time are, responsible for most structural wind damage. I have talked with people who no longer have a roof, and they were genuinely disappointed that it was not a tornado that took it! ESPLAIN THAT ONE RICKY!

In many cases it can be difficult to tell. The damage at Belle Mina, in Alabama on Christmas Eve, is a good example! My first thought was that it was likely straight line winds. A good rule of thumb is this: if the only damage is a mobile home, then assume straight line winds. In this case, there was some decent evidence of an EF-1 tornado. That means a 3 second wind gust of 86-110 mph.

If you have wondered how these storm surveys are done, here is a link to a power point presentation on doing storm surveys. It is courtesy of the U.S. National Weather Service.

STORM SURVEYS

The slides were put together by NWS Meteorologist Ernest Ostuno.

Later,

Dan

If your reading this blog from anywhere  in the Northern Hemisphere, you know how crazy the weather has been in December. Here in the Southeast USA, we have had warm and dreary conditions, with nearly 11 inches of rain in Huntsville. This is not a record though. Back in 1990 we had over 18 inches!

The West, and North have had bitter cold, and snow for most of the month. Blizzards in Seattle, Detroit, and heavy lake affect snow in Michigan, and New York.

Here in the Tennessee Valley, we finally got just a dose of what has been the rule up North. Bitter cold arctic air has moved in, and as I type this on Sunday night the first day of Winter, it is -7C!

So what happens next you ask? Well first let me explain why it has been so warm here, and cold elsewhere.

The storm track locked into a pattern in early December. (See below). This kept us wet and mild, while most of the country had snow, and cold.

The pattern broke this weekend, and the cold made it into the East and South.

It will not last though. The long range guidance is all advertising a return to the storm track of the last two weeks, with cold and snowy weather in the North and West, and mild wet weather in the southeast.

The image below is the storm track forecasted by the WRF model, for Christmas Eve. The upper left panel is the storm track, and the bottom right is the forecast of precipitation for the 12 hour period during the day. I’m always happier with the jet stream to my south….I love SNOW!

Later,

Dan

The map below is courtesy Penn State Meteorology.